Choosy Choosers Choose Choice
The Supreme Court’s decision overruling Roe v. Wade was a thunderclap in American politics. Tonight, the voters of Kansas clapped back. Loudly. They voted down a referendum that would have terminated the right to abortion in the state.
In Kansas. Kansas, where Republicans registered voters outnumber Democrats by approximately 850,000 to 500,000 (with approximately 500,000 unaffiliated)—and have done for years.1 The referendum was scheduled during the primary because turnout is typically in the 20-30% range, and Republican turnout is even more disproportionate than in general elections. But voter turnout exploded to almost general election levels. And the referendum failed—with 78 % of the vote in, “NO” is winning 62 to 38. A landslide. Abortion is more popular than Donald Trump in Kansas.2 Hell, abortion may be more popular than the Jayhawks in Kansas. Kansas voters made the strongest statement in support of abortion rights in American history.
Some context about the referendum. In 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court held that abortion rights were protected under the state’s constitution, although the state still retains sufficient latitude to ban abortion after 20 weeks under most circumstances. In order for the Kansas legislature to vote for a more restrictive or total ban on abortion it had to pass this referendum, overriding the court decision.
In other words, the toggle switch for abortion regulation was switched off in Kansas, and voters were asked whether they wanted to turn it on. They overwhelmingly said “don’t let the officials we elected make this choice for us.” If that’s what happened in Kansas, the 15th-most Republican voting state in the country, it’s reasonable to conclude that a national referendum about whether to preserve the “status Roe” or overturn it would have resulted in an even more overwhelming victory for choice. The polls certainly back that up.
Of course, there was no such national referendum. And in most states, the switch permitting regulation is already on—there is no state Supreme Court standing in the way of legislators’ discretion to restrict or ban abortion now that Roe no longer stands in their way. And the expression of popular opinion in favor of abortion rights by Kansas voters doesn’t necessarily mean that voters will punish elected officials who vote against their constituents’ wishes on this particular issue; abortion is only one of many reasons that voters vote for or against politicians.
But still. It is expected that legislators and governors in 30-40% of the states are going to ban or severely restrict abortion rights. If Kansans are at all representative almost nobody wants those bans.3 Maybe every state is Kansas, if they just get the chance to show it.
This is also the same Kansas where the Summer of Mercy protests at abortion clinics took place in 1991, and abortion provider George Tiller was assassinated in 2009
Trump beat Biden 56-41 in 2020.
Candidates like Stacy Abrams and Beto O’Rourke running long-shot, but plausible races in purple and red states might want to think about making their races a referendum on choice. It might be the most popular position they have to run on.